Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.

• themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-06-25
• elephantower estimated 20% on 2016-06-27
• two2thehead estimated 90% on 2016-07-07
• two2thehead estimated 10% on 2016-07-11
• two2thehead said “veep picks are hard. you shouldn’t have 90% confidence in that until it’s announced -gwern” on 2016-07-11
• two2thehead said “Lesson learned.” on 2016-07-11
• predictit estimated 6% and said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.” on 2016-07-14
• predictit said “Seems a bit low to me: trump is more likely to do a surprise pick so less media attention about him isn’t as important, critical Trump staffers are from Sessions’ campaign, and Trump values loyalty (Sessions stood by him 1 year ago w/ most opposed)” on 2016-07-14
• predictit said “On the other hand, I think the probability mass is much more diffuse than predictit thinks” on 2016-07-14
• elephantower estimated 30% on 2016-07-14
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-14.
• MonkeyNutrition said “65&%” on 2017-08-01