David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it)

Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.

• ejlflop estimated 20% on 2016-06-25
• splorridge estimated 23% on 2016-06-25
• elephantower estimated 15% on 2016-06-26
• splorridge estimated 40% on 2016-06-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-07-01
• Bruno Parga estimated 40% on 2016-09-10
• Bruno Parga estimated 10% and said “She says she will before the end of March. There remains a small chance that she won’t have enough support for that, or that she will have to resign before invoking article 50. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37532364##” on 2016-10-02
• splorridge estimated 15% on 2016-10-07
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2017-02-17
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-03-31.