In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 10% on 2016-06-27
• Medea estimated 15% on 2016-06-28
• elephantower estimated 10% on 2016-07-02
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 60% and said “Majority of Irish voted for Remain. If Northern Ireland is seperated by a real border, they will want to join the EU.” on 2016-07-06
• davatk estimated 18% on 2018-05-01
• kiimberlie estimated 0% on 2018-05-16
• Bruno Parga estimated 2% and said “They will probably want to, and ask for one, but Westminster has to agree to it. I’m assuming the prediction is only right if the referendum has happened by the end date.” on 2019-12-30
• elephantower estimated 8% and said “our day will come (but probably not by 2021 unfortunately)” on 2019-12-31
• Medea estimated 5% on 2020-01-09
• NickN estimated 5% on 2020-08-16
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “This would have had to be announced already.” on 2020-09-13
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.