[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500.

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2501-01-01

• WilliamKiely estimated 24% on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “Also see: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178575” on 2016-06-29
• WilliamKiely said “Notably: “John Leslie, a Canadian philosopher, puts the probability of humanity failing to survive the next five centuries to 30% in his book End of the World.” Quote source: Bostrom: http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf” on 2016-06-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 94% on 2016-07-02
• pranomostro estimated 53% on 2019-03-15