Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate.

Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.

• Bound_Up estimated 70% on 2016-07-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 56% on 2016-07-06
• elephantower estimated 55% on 2016-07-07
• Jenson estimated 67% on 2016-07-10
• bendini estimated 80% on 2016-07-15
• ejlflop estimated 70% on 2016-07-23
• two2thehead said “I get the spirit of the prediction but what (if any) is the time period? After the debate sure, but what time period? “For one week after the debate, a day after the debate, for the rest of the election” etc.” on 2016-07-23
• two2thehead estimated 70% and said “Probably. Improvement is defined (by me) as there will be at least two polls which shows Trump beating Hillary by at least one point.” on 2016-07-26
• leo_grint estimated 55% on 2016-08-10
• two2thehead estimated 60% and said “Decreased for two reasons. One is because I have just watched the 2016 September 26th debate and my first impression is that Hillary won. This means a lower chance of Trump’s polls improving.” on 2016-09-27
• two2thehead said “The other is that the prediction as it now stands doesn’t have a “known by/judged correctly if” condition” on 2016-09-27
• two2thehead said “have a “known by POLLNAME*/judged correct if” condition” on 2016-09-27
• PlacidPlatypus said “Yeah this prediction 100% should have been worded more specifically. Like, ’Trump’s chances of winning according to 538’s nowcast will be higher one week after the debate than on the day of the debate.’” on 2016-09-28
• two2thehead said “I’m assuming that the polls on realclearpolitics acceptable in judging this prediction. I’m only taking polls that were taken after September 26th. ” on 2016-09-30
• two2thehead said “http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html” on 2016-09-30
• two2thehead said “Using the above criterion there is only one poll that can be considered. [PPP (D) 9-27 – 9-28 933 LV 3.2 49 45 Clinton +4] I am going to wait longer until judging this prediction. I don’t think it would take more than two weeks though.” on 2016-09-30
• two2thehead said “Another poll that meets the criterion [FOX News 9-27 – 9-29 911 LV 3.0 49 44 Clinton +5]” on 2016-10-01
• two2thehead said “[Economist-YouGov 10-1-10-3 911 RV 3.9 48 43 Clinton +5][CNN-ORC 9-28 – 10-2 1213 LV 3.0 51 45 Clinton +6][CBS-News 9-28 – 10-2 1217 LV 4.0 49 43 Clinton +6]” on 2016-10-03
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-05.