Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place.
- themusicgod1 estimated 6% on 2016-07-08
- elephantower estimated 1% on 2016-07-08
- bobpage estimated 1% on 2016-07-08
- two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Less than one percent. Turkey is, if not hankering for weapons, but definitely going to do it within a fifty year time period. Same with Brazil.” on 2016-07-08
- two2thehead said “Note that I’m assuming Turkey does it outside the Nuclear Sharing agreement/ has an indigenous program. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing” on 2016-07-08
- Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “As written, this is vague. Most states are already parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Even if definition is updated to say “all current nuclear powers ratify a nuclear disarmament treaty”, I still give it 1% (I’d like to give less, though).” on 2016-07-11
- Bruno Parga said “For reference, the Non-Proliferation Treaty parties that have nukes are America, Britain, France, Russia and China. The non-parties that have known nukes are India, Pakistan and North Korea, plus Israel is widely believed to have them.” on 2016-07-11
- timmartin estimated 1% on 2017-11-19
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-11-19
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% and said “bahahaha” on 2019-05-02
- Pablo Stafforini estimated 0% on 2019-06-08
- Selentelechia estimated 1% on 2019-06-11
- AlexLamson judged this prediction wrong on 2019-06-27.
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