It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-07-08

• two2thehead estimated 99% on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said ““But even if Russia did boast a powerful military machine and an impressive economy, it would still probably prove unable to successfully occupy Ukraine. "” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said “One need only consider the Soviet and U.S. experiences in Afghanistan, the U.S. experiences in Vietnam and Iraq, and the Russian experience in Chechnya to be reminded that military occupations usually end badly. ” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said “Putin surely understands that trying to subdue Ukraine would be like swallowing a porcupine. His response to events there has been defensive, not offensive.” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said “Source: http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/Ukraine%20Article%20in%20Foreign%20Affairs.pdf ” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said ““Generally agreed” is defined as the consensus opinion of specialists. Similar to how the general population assumes that IQ isn’t very relevant while specialists know of how predictive it is.” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead changed the deadline from “on 2066-07-08” and changed their prediction from “It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there will be guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation.” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead changed the deadline from “on 2066-07-08” and changed their prediction from “It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said “Edited for clarity. Thank you to saturn2 from the lesswrong irc.” on 2016-07-08
• two2thehead said “The veracity of this prediction shall be judged by a random sample survey of historians (what counts as a historian to be judged later). ” on 2016-07-10
• two2thehead said “The question will similar to ‘In your opinion, would there have been resistance to a Russian invasion of Ukraine during the 2010s?’” on 2016-07-10
• two2thehead said “Thank you to namespace from the lesswrong IRC for poking holes in my prediction/showing what needs work. Deliberate practice does a mind good. ^__” on 2016-07-10
• Bruno Parga said “As a clarification: does this prediction imply the predictor believes Russia did not invade Eastern Ukraine and did not forcibly annex Crimea? Or does the prediction refer just to the rest of Ukraine?” on 2016-07-11
• two2thehead said “Ah. I should have been clearer. It was meant to cover the condition ‘Had Russian invaded Ukraine as a whole’. :-) Or a majority of it. Crimea, although big, is not a majority. ” on 2016-07-11