May will preside over an early general election

Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.

  • RoryS estimated 38% on 2016-07-11
  • splorridge said “Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but does it count as “May calling an election” if all the parties say “we should have an election” and May says “ok”?on 2016-07-11
  • splorridge said “In other words, is your prediction equivalent to “UK will have an early general election while May is PM”?on 2016-07-11
  • RoryS changed the deadline from “on 2019-11-07” and changed their prediction from “May will call an early general election” on 2016-07-11
  • RoryS said “You’re right to ask this, thanks. I’ve updated to (hopefully) make it clearer.on 2016-07-11
  • elephantower estimated 20% on 2016-07-11
  • splorridge estimated 54% on 2016-07-12
  • ejlflop estimated 20% on 2016-07-23
  • splorridge estimated 98% and said “Updating based on the fact that she’s called it.on 2017-04-18
  • splorridge   judged this prediction right on 2017-06-14.

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