Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

  • elephantower estimated 30% on 2016-07-11
  • elephantower said “The rise of the “new IRA” is really worrying…on 2016-07-11
  • two2thehead said “Almost certainly. I’ll need to think about this before giving a probability though. The Trump Veep prediction dinged me too much and counts as a humbling incentive.on 2016-07-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-07-12
  • elephantower said “@two2thehead, why are you so certain? AFAIK, this hasn’t happened since Omagh…To be clear, I’m not counting riots that are supposedly orchestrated by VDR elementson 2016-07-12
  • two2thehead said “From my, admittedly very limited, understanding of Irish history, it seems like there has been a history of violence and terrorism and bombing. It’s not that I have any special knowledge. Just that the prerequisites are there.on 2016-07-12
  • two2thehead said “There’s something I’ve come across reading into security and terrorism called ‘the threat equation’. Threat = Capability + Intent. on 2016-07-12
  • two2thehead said “Ireland had a history of terror. There are (apparently) hidden caches of weapons and explosives. There are people with experience on bomb making and weapons training. There are also individuals with the intent to commit terror.on 2016-07-12
  • two2thehead said “The odds are good that something bad will happen. Especially if you consider such a ‘low’ death count. Example 2015 November Paris. :(on 2016-07-12
  • two2thehead said “Some background /reading https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/may/17/antrim-weapons-cache-is-most-significant-arms-find-in-years-says-psni on 2016-07-12
  • Medea estimated 20% on 2016-07-12
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 8% on 2016-07-13
  • two2thehead said “:( I really hope I’m wrong.2016 July 7th Dallas Shooting. 6 (including the perpetrator)2016 July 17th Baton Rouge. 4 (including the perpetrator)Posting this so I have a ‘record’ of sorts to look at and refer to in the future.on 2016-07-18
  • kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.

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