The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • elephantower estimated 95% on 2016-07-13
  • predictit estimated 88% and said “I created this account to see how the aggregated averages on the betting site predictit would fare, and to easily test if I can consistently beat the market. I’ll be adding other predictions from predictit on this site; see them on "predictit"s pageon 2016-07-13
  • predictit said “Also noting in each case why I think the market is wrong:Too many over-optimistic trump supporters emboldened by the surprise primary resultson 2016-07-13
  • Dapple estimated 93% and said “I think the reason to be pessimistic on this prediction is the possibility of a bombshell of a scandal to take Hillary out. She’s proven to mostly be in the clear regarding emailgate, but there’s always room for something else.on 2016-07-13
  • predictit said “Hillary clinton could win 168 EVs from a jail cell, and her long record in the public spotlight means that there’s a smaller-than-normal chance of a late-breaking scandal disrupting her bidon 2016-07-13
  • Sniffnoy estimated 90% on 2016-07-16
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 95% on 2016-11-05
  • two2thehead estimated 95% on 2016-11-06
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2016-11-06
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-09.

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