A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate

Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.

  • predictit estimated 80% on 2016-07-13
  • predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.on 2016-07-13
  • elephantower estimated 95% and said “No 3rd party candidate is polling at even 1/3 of the required level: probably nevertrump fanatics and actual 3rd party supporters (overrepresented on political betting sites)on 2016-07-13
  • Bruno Parga estimated 90% and said “The Presidential Debate Commission is a bipartisan entity which has an internal guideline that a candidate that polls at 15% in 5 nationwide polls can take part. It is not even legally bound by this rule.on 2016-07-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-07-17
  • Bruno Parga said “Just to be clear: the rules on Predictit specify this has to be a “Commission on Presidential Debates” debate. The “Free & Equal” debate, to which Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are qualified, doesn’t count.on 2016-07-25
  • leo_grint estimated 80% on 2016-08-09
  • Bruno Parga estimated 76% and said “30% chance of Johnson polling at 15% in 5 national polls, and 80% of chance of the Commission on Presidential Debates inviting him = 24% chance of him participating.on 2016-08-12
  • Bruno Parga estimated 84% on 2016-09-01
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-08.

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