Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader.

Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-03.

• splorridge estimated 15% on 2016-07-13
• elephantower said “What happens if Corbyn wins the upcoming leadership election but Smith (somewhat implausibly) succeeds him at a later date?” on 2016-07-22
• elephantower estimated 40% and said “Polls favor Corbyn obviously but Smith has a strong message and it’s really hard to believe that a majority of the labour party is keen to see it split and throw away its 2020 chances. My guess is the polls now only reflect support 4 Corbyn policies” on 2016-07-22
• elephantower said “(assuming the prediction is judged wrong if smith loses the upcoming election)” on 2016-07-22
• elephantower said “Unfortunately a substantial portion of Labour party members seem to have joined solely to vote for Corbyn — how many will be persuaded to change to a competent Bevanist?” on 2016-07-22
• splorridge said “Your interpretation is correct. Sorry for not making it clearer.” on 2016-07-22
• splorridge said ““Smith has a strong message”… I’ve yet to hear it. I think he’s a pretty hopeless candidate, running the election on personality rather than policy.” on 2016-07-22
• ejlflop estimated 20% on 2016-07-23
• splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-03.