Conditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2020-12-31

• elephantower estimated 60% on 2016-07-13
• splorridge estimated 32% on 2016-07-14
• Jenson estimated 25% on 2016-07-14
• splorridge said “Should this prediction be withdrawn? Or do you still think he might not end up on the ballot?” on 2016-08-09
• elephantower said “Didn’t the suit fizzle out? ” on 2016-08-10
• elephantower withdrew the prediction on 2016-08-10