Conditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2020-12-31

  • elephantower estimated 60% on 2016-07-13
  • splorridge estimated 32% on 2016-07-14
  • Jenson estimated 25% on 2016-07-14
  • splorridge said “Should this prediction be withdrawn? Or do you still think he might not end up on the ballot?on 2016-08-09
  • elephantower said “Didn’t the suit fizzle out? on 2016-08-10
  • elephantower withdrew the prediction on 2016-08-10

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