McCain wins re-election in 2016
- predictit estimated 63% on 2016-07-14
- predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too” on 2016-07-14
- elephantower estimated 85% and said “Seems a bit low to me — people are probably overestimating Kirkpatrick because of her wins in House races, but her district is very very diffferent from AZ as a whole”” on 2016-07-14
- elephantower said “a 20% swing towards Kirkpatrick seems likely — this will still allow for a McCain victory” on 2016-07-14
- kuudes judged this prediction right on 2016-11-09.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction