Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • predictit estimated 64% on 2016-07-14
  • predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.on 2016-07-14
  • elephantower estimated 90% and said “The market seems to severely underestimate the tendency parliamentary parties have towards compromise, as well as voters’ inclination to punish minority parties that don’t form coalitions. Also, this market is biased against Rajoy: Iglesias got 50%.on 2016-07-14
  • splorridge estimated 66% on 2016-07-14
  • elephantower said “why so low?on 2016-07-14
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-09.

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