Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-01-20.

• predictit estimated 70% on 2016-07-14
• predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.” on 2016-07-14
• elephantower estimated 93% and said “Predictit overestimates Dem gains in the house (out of Trump fears?)— driving up the price of Pelosi some, but also the chance of a hardliner ousting Ryan as moderate Republicans are replaced with Democrats” on 2016-07-14
• PlacidPlatypus said “I feel like the phrasing here is off. Shouldn’t it be something along the lines of “Will be Speaker as of 2017-01-20”, given that he is already?” on 2016-07-15
• elephantower said “Well it’ll be a new congressional session so he’ll have to get re-elected — it’s like asking in 2011 if Obama will be the next POTUS” on 2016-07-15
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 90% on 2016-07-15
• Dapple estimated 80% on 2016-07-16
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-20.