Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked.

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.

• blackRust estimated 70% on 2016-07-14
• Bruno Parga estimated 90% and said “Constitutionally, I think this falls under royal prerogative, so Theresa May does not strictly have to go to Parliament. But it is politically expedient for her to do so.” on 2016-09-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-09-10
• Bruno Parga said “It is still pending before the Supreme Court, but given the verdict of the High Court and the time frame originally proposed, I’m marking this one correct: goo.gl/q4Itd0” on 2016-12-31
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2016-12-31.
• Bruno Parga said “Supreme Court confirmed: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38720320” on 2017-01-24