Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass.

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.

• blackRust estimated 50% on 2016-07-14
• Bruno Parga estimated 67% and said “This prediction fails if Parliament flat out ignores the referendum results. While the referendum was not legally binding, this would still be something like a constitutional crisis.” on 2016-07-15
• Jenson said “Treaties and foreign affairs fall under royal preogative. The Prime Minister, through the constitutional powers of the monarch, can trigger Article 50 if Parliament ignores the referendum results. The prediction is moot if they do not vote.” on 2016-07-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-07-15
• elephantower estimated 80% and said “Why is this so low?” on 2016-07-15
• splorridge estimated 62% on 2016-07-15
• themusicgod1 said “so they didn’t do this did they? will this be withdrawn?” on 2017-03-31
• splorridge said “No, they did do it, and it did pass.” on 2017-04-03
• splorridge   judged this prediction right on 2017-04-03.