Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.

• blackRust estimated 70% on 2016-07-14
• splorridge estimated 68% on 2016-07-15
• Chri estimated 70% on 2016-07-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-07-17
• RoryS estimated 70% on 2016-07-18
• elephantower estimated 60% on 2016-07-19
• blackRust estimated 5% on 2020-02-29
• blackRust   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-16.