By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness.

Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18

• RoryS estimated 8% on 2016-07-18
• themusicgod1 said “can we be a little more precise on this one? ie when we say “quantum mechanis” do we really just mean ‘the brain has stochastic properties’ ?” on 2016-07-19
• RoryS said “I’m thinking of something stronger than just brain having stochastic properties; I’m thinking widespread acceptance of a Penrose-style theory, or something similar. ” on 2016-07-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-07-19
• Medea estimated 5% on 2016-07-21
• ejlflop estimated 0% on 2016-07-23
• Expipiplusone estimated 0% and said “Just because it seems I can’t put something lower than 0.1%” on 2016-08-26
• Expipiplusone estimated 1% and said “Argh, 1% is the bare minimum above 0. Fine _” on 2016-08-26
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2017-12-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2017-12-15
• Lucent estimated 5% on 2018-11-10