Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.

• themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-07-23
• HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2016-07-23
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “Way less than 1% (but 0 is not a valid probability).” on 2016-07-24
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% and said “How do you define “nuclear war”? I would suggest “nuclear weapons used by both sides” but whatever we’re using it would be better made explicit.” on 2016-07-25
• PlacidPlatypus said “Also if she’s reelected and there’s a nuclear war in her second term does this count or does it have to be first term?” on 2016-07-25
• themusicgod1 said “1) first term2) let’s say 2+ nuclear explosions on US/from US or any combination.” on 2016-07-26
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Less than one percent” on 2016-07-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2016-07-26
• robirahman estimated 1% and said “At least 1 nuclear weapon, used as part of a war involving the United States, from 2017-2021.” on 2016-07-30
• davidmanheim estimated 2% and said “Low enough to be negligible.” on 2016-08-02
• Expipiplusone estimated 1% on 2016-08-26
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2016-08-28
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.