Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls.

Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

  • Bruno Parga estimated 30% on 2016-07-24
  • Bruno Parga said “Related prediction: if this one happens, he will be invited to a debate, http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178973on 2016-07-24
  • Bruno Parga said “Related prediction: GJ to poll above 15% (no mention to number of polls) and be included in a debate. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178328on 2016-07-24
  • themusicgod1 estimated 37% on 2016-07-24
  • blackRust estimated 20% on 2016-07-24
  • tstelzig estimated 15% and said “Low favorables for Trump and Clinton boost Johnson’s chances, but high unfavorables and polarized climate hurt them. on 2016-08-01
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 5% on 2016-08-02
  • Bruno Parga estimated 20% and said “August has come and gone and GJ hasn’t polled 15% in even just one national poll.on 2016-09-01
  • Bruno Parga estimated 10% and said “The first debate has passed and Gary Johnson still can’t poll 10% on average.on 2016-10-01
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.

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