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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-07-24
  • sole21000 estimated 17% and said “Assuming Trump has 20% chance of election. High probability if elected.” on 2016-07-27
  • Dapple estimated 4% and said “Trump strikes me as too intelligent to find his way into that situation.” on 2016-07-27
  • two2thehead said “The problem I have with Trump is his constant changing of his position. I don’t think there will be something like what happened in 2016 July Turkey. ” on 2016-07-28
  • two2thehead said “Rather that a general (or group of generals) would submit a protest letter (or equivalent) to congress. IIRC this hasn’t happened in US history.” on 2016-07-28
  • two2thehead said “Correction: change ‘what happened in 2016 July Turkey’ to ‘Military refusing to follow orders’.” on 2016-07-28
  • two2thehead estimated 5% on 2016-07-31
  • two2thehead said “I don’t think there’s going to be a constitutional crisis with the military refusing to follow orders. Rather what Trump seems to do is make off-the-cuff remarks that the Republican party has to (obliquely or otherwise) repudiate. ” on 2016-07-31
  • two2thehead said “IE “Our pilots in the South China sea should do barrel rolls around any Chinese jet that comes near them! They should do over flights on those islands that look like bombing runs. The effects with be huuge. YUUUUGE!”” on 2016-07-31
  • two2thehead said “And then the DOD will release a statement saying ’We call upon all involved in the South China Sea to refrain from listening to politicians and keep in mind the low level, on the ground communication” on 2016-07-31
  • two2thehead said “…agreements that clarify any possible actions taken by planes.’ etc Then Trump will offer a ‘clarification’ of what he meant.” on 2016-07-31
  • themusicgod1 said “one comment at a time, with a prediction pls.” on 2016-07-31
  • Bruno Parga estimated 2% and said “40% of Trump winning * 5% of this happening if he does.” on 2016-07-31
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-08-02
  • Expipiplusone estimated 5% on 2016-08-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-08-28
  • JoshuaZ said “24% Trump wins, and 50% chance this happens if he wins. ” on 2016-08-28
  • btrettel estimated 9% and said “I’ll take a slightly more granular approach. 35% Trump wins. 50% for situation where Trump might consider extreme military action (which the military might disregard). 50% for the military disregarding the order.” on 2016-08-28
  • themusicgod1 said “related http://predictionbook.com/predictions/179857” on 2016-10-06
  • NickN estimated 15% on 2020-08-16
  • Bruno Parga said “We should wait until his term ends on Jan 20 to judge this.” on 2021-01-01
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-22.