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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-07-31
  • elephantower estimated 10% on 2016-07-31
  • elephantower said “Don’t forget to withdraw this when, in fact, President Trump never materializes” on 2016-07-31
  • themusicgod1 said “Claim will be judged false, not withdrawn.” on 2016-08-01
  • Bruno Parga estimated 4% and said “~40% on Trump winning, 10% on it actually happening if he does.” on 2016-08-01
  • sflicht estimated 5% on 2016-08-16
  • splorridge estimated 4% on 2016-08-17
  • themusicgod1 said “https://twitter.com/FreedomofPress/status/777558883535642624” on 2016-09-19
  • themusicgod1 estimated 77% on 2016-09-19
  • btrettel said “So this is not conditional on Trump winning?” on 2016-09-20
  • themusicgod1 said ““President Trump”. Unless he manages to become president without winning the election I suppose, he’s gotta win for this to be true.” on 2016-09-21
  • btrettel said “That’s not what I meant. The probabilities are different if this is the intersection of “Trump is president” and “conditional on Trump being president, Trump does X”, rather than merely the conditional part. That’s what elephantower was getting at.” on 2016-09-21
  • themusicgod1 said “It’s meant to be an intersection, not conditional. ” on 2016-09-21
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Zero point zero four (Twenty percent times twenty percent). I’m putting it one percent because it’s not zero.” on 2016-09-22
  • btrettel said “Personally, I’m not a fan of intersection type predictions and much prefer conditional. With conditional, if you change your mind on the dependent variable, you have less predictions to update on here.” on 2016-09-23
  • themusicgod1 said “@btrettel I don’t update these predictions on changes in the dependent variable anyway so I prefer the intersection-type ones. You’re welcomed to make a conditional version of the same, I’d join it” on 2016-10-02
  • splorridge estimated 10% on 2016-11-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-11-09
  • themusicgod1 said “https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/24/journalists-charged-felonies-trump-inauguration-unrest?CMP=share_btn_tw” on 2017-01-25
  • sflicht   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-02.