The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election

Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

• predictit estimated 68% on 2016-08-03
• predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.” on 2016-08-03
• predictit changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-08” and changed their prediction from “The Democratic Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election” on 2016-08-03
• elephantower estimated 40% and said “Arizona’s demographics are changing, but it also have two groups of strongly anti-Trump people — Mormons + Latinos (HRC’s GOTV helps w/ Latinos). It’s likely that many are taking the other side of this bet simply because of AZ’s past voting record. ” on 2016-08-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-09-17
• NathanMcKnight estimated 40% on 2016-11-05
• elephantower   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-10.
• elephantower   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-10.