Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st

Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.

• elephantower estimated 1% on 2016-08-05
• predictit estimated 8% on 2016-08-05
• predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.” on 2016-08-05
• Bruno Parga estimated 3% on 2016-08-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-08-06
• two2thehead estimated 3% and said “There’s stick–to–itiveness and then there’s delusion. Trump, for better or for worse, seems hell bent on riding this train off the rails.” on 2016-08-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2016-08-06
• Dapple said “What does bobpage know that the rest of us don’t? That’s a fairly dramatic prediction, and seemingly out of character from your history.” on 2016-08-08
• btrettel estimated 2% and said “Unlikely, but possible.” on 2016-08-08
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% on 2016-08-09
• elephantower said “bobpage you should certainly buy yes shares on predictit” on 2016-08-10
• yurigg estimated 0% on 2016-08-10
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-08-31.