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The Democrats will win the Nevada senate race

Created by predictit on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • predictit estimated 52% on 2016-08-05
  • predictit said “This was taken from before the Dem convention as that’s when I intended to put it up (but was on vacation)” on 2016-08-05
  • predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too” on 2016-08-05
  • elephantower estimated 70% and said “People really underestimate the power of Reid’s machine; also, I don’t think Masto has really started linking Heck to Trump (who Heck supports). ” on 2016-08-05
  • elephantower said “The polling with Heck ahead reflects implausibly low numbers among Hispanics considering the dynamics of the Presidential race (Hillary and Reid both have ties to Hispanics in Nevada that they’ll exploit to help Masto, and Dems can link Heck toTrump” on 2016-08-05
  • elephantower said “Remember, Reid was polling behind Angle in 2010 but won by a fairly comfortable amount…” on 2016-08-05
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-09.