There will be at least five polls between the DNC and 2017 where Clinton beats Trump by at least ten points.
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-06; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
- two2thehead estimated 70% on 2016-08-06
- two2thehead said “Measured by www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html” on 2016-08-06
- two2thehead said “www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html” on 2016-08-06
- two2thehead said “DNC refers to the Democratic National Convention. Right now I see two polls where Clinton is winning by +10 and +15 points respectively.” on 2016-08-06
- two2thehead said “The DNC ended on July 28, 2016.” on 2016-08-06
- themusicgod1 estimated 57% on 2016-08-06
- two2thehead said “NBC News SM Poll conducted between 8-1 and 8-7. Clinton + 10” on 2016-08-09
- regex said “It’s basically already there. http://i.imgur.com/Uj2Bich.png” on 2016-08-09
- two2thehead said “The reason I made this prediction was to slowly get better at predicting in general by making percentile probabilities. Similar to how the AI researchers give x percentiles for AGI at 2020, 2030, 2040 etc. ” on 2016-08-09
- two2thehead said “When I made this I assumed that the conventions would be the high water mark for both candidates and they would be within 5 points of each other till election day.” on 2016-08-09
- two2thehead said “It’s not my fault Trump doesn’t seem to be taking this seriously. >_> <_< :v :-’(” on 2016-08-09
- two2thehead said “Quinnipiac 8 18 – 8 24 1498 LV 2.5 51 41 has Clinton + 10” on 2016-08-27
- two2thehead said “[NBC News-Wall St.Jrnl10-8-10-9 447LV 4.6 -52-38-Clinton +14]” on 2016-10-10
- two2thehead judged this prediction right on 2016-10-10.
