Hillary Clinton will win Utah

Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.

• predictit estimated 24% on 2016-08-10
• predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too” on 2016-08-10
• elephantower estimated 5% and said “The only reason this looks close is because of the third parties; it’s very doubtful that Hillary will invest in Utah, and as polls settle closer to the election voters will come home to the GOP. Predictit has it too high partly because of McMullin” on 2016-08-10
• elephantower said “Who is very tempting to speculate about, but ultimately will probably pull votes almost entirely from undecideds. Basically, predictit users are, inflating this b/c the uncertainty generated by having 4 serious candidates allows partisans to create” on 2016-08-10
• elephantower said “a reality distortion field” on 2016-08-10
• elephantower said “The trend (though with patchy data) has also been strongly towards trump over time” on 2016-08-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-08-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% and said “http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/” on 2016-08-14
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 7% on 2016-08-17
• PlacidPlatypus said “http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#plus” on 2016-08-17
• NathanMcKnight estimated 6% and said “cf: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177771” on 2016-08-19
• NathanMcKnight estimated 12% on 2016-10-11
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.