Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 18% on 2016-08-26
• NathanMcKnight estimated 12% and said “oops!” on 2016-08-26
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “Less than 1%. The two-party system isn’t going anywhere, especially when the voting system that creates it isn’t changing either. Also, Libertarians don’t win even state rep races, that comes before winning the White House.” on 2016-08-27
• Dapple estimated 2% on 2016-08-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-08-28
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “If the Republican party implodes, the Libertarians are set to gain the most.” on 2016-08-30
• PseudonymousUser said “Does the prediction refer to just Libertarian Party candidates or also other-party candidates who refer to themselves as libertarians?” on 2016-08-31
• ytarko estimated 0% and said “I think it’s more likely that the US will no longer exist by 2020. ” on 2016-09-01
• ytarko estimated 1% and said “Apparently estimates less than 1% are rounded down. I meant to reply 0.5%” on 2016-09-01
• elephantower said “there’s a greater than 1 in 200 chance the US will no longer exist?” on 2016-09-01
• NathanMcKnight said “bobpage: Just LP candidates. ” on 2016-09-01
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-16” and changed their prediction from “Libertarian wins presidency in 2020.” on 2016-09-01
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2016-09-03
• EloiseRosen estimated 1% on 2016-09-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2016-09-05
• mutantamoeba estimated 2% on 2016-09-09
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2017-12-14
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2018-01-02
• ccokeefe estimated 2% on 2018-01-02
• telegrafista estimated 2% on 2019-02-14
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2019-07-05
• awlego estimated 1% on 2019-12-24
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-12-25
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2020-09-13
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-08.