Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.

• Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2016-09-07
• Michael Dickens said “That is, if you take the ratio of monetary value of grants in GCRs divided by the monetary value of grants in US policy, this number will be higher in 2018 than in 2016.” on 2016-09-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-09-07
• elephantower estimated 70% on 2016-09-16
• Michael Dickens said “Totals based on parsing the grant db: GCR 2016: $15,056,711 – Policy 2016: $28,208,838 – GCR 2018: $22,237,285 – Policy 2018: $24,288,485” on 2019-03-05
• Michael Dickens   judged this prediction right on 2019-03-05.