I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.

  • btrettel estimated 1% on 2016-09-12
  • btrettel said “I live in Texas and there have been quite a few cases, though I think they are all from either travel or sexual contact.on 2016-09-12
  • btrettel said “I think the probability is lower than 1%, but put 1% down because it’s not zero.on 2016-09-12
  • themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-09-14
  • Dapple estimated 1% and said “You also might consider the chance that you actually do contract it, and it remains undiagnosed.on 2016-09-20
  • btrettel said “Good point Dapple. For the sake of this prediction, let’s keep it to “I receive a diagnosis of Zika virus”.on 2016-09-20
  • btrettel said “No diagnosis or symptoms.on 2018-01-01
  • btrettel  judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.

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