I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.

• btrettel estimated 1% on 2016-09-12
• btrettel said “I live in Texas and there have been quite a few cases, though I think they are all from either travel or sexual contact.” on 2016-09-12
• btrettel said “I think the probability is lower than 1%, but put 1% down because it’s not zero.” on 2016-09-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-09-14
• Dapple estimated 1% and said “You also might consider the chance that you actually do contract it, and it remains undiagnosed.” on 2016-09-20
• btrettel said “Good point Dapple. For the sake of this prediction, let’s keep it to “I receive a diagnosis of Zika virus”.” on 2016-09-20
• btrettel said “No diagnosis or symptoms.” on 2018-01-01
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.