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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.

  • Michael Dickens estimated 30% on 2016-09-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-03
  • penten estimated 15% and said “Since they generally base their recommendations on cost per life saved / DALY, this would require a very major change in the criteria they use to judge charities.” on 2016-10-06
  • Vipul Naik estimated 30% and said “GiveWell’s post http://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/12/amf-population-ethics/ shows population ethics has been considered. Changes to weights might make prediction true.” on 2016-12-18
  • Michael Dickens said “I completely forgot about this prediction until just now but Vipul is right” on 2017-12-21
  • Michael Dickens   judged this prediction right on 2017-12-21.
  • Michael Dickens said “I guess it’s slightly ambiguous whether this qualifies as a weakened recommendation because AMF is still a top charity, but their reported cost per QALY more than doubled due to a change in their population ethics accounting” on 2017-12-21