Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.

• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-09-30
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-09-30
• Temeraire estimated 1% and said “Assuming end date is 2016” on 2016-10-01
• Dapple estimated 1% on 2016-10-04
• pkfalu92 estimated 0% on 2016-12-04
• Balazs estimated 0% on 2016-12-29
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-30.