US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01

  • btrettel estimated 20% on 2016-10-02
  • btrettel said “Conditional on the US existing until when they abandon the electoral college if they do, or through 2050 if they do not. (That is, if the US government collapses before 2050 without ever switching from the electoral college, this will be withdrawn.)on 2016-10-02
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% and said “people will end up deciding who actually runs the place by googling to see who won, and gradually google will realize that they can just cut out the middle men, and first cut out the electoral college and eventually voting itself. on 2016-10-02
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% and said “themusicgod1, why do you always vote close to 50% no matter how likely/unlikely the prediction is?on 2016-10-02
  • btrettel said “Perhaps 50% is their prior, because this website only offers binary predictions.on 2016-10-03
  • themusicgod1 said “I don’t “always” do that. In fact I usually don’t. ~67.4% of the time based on past judged predictions I use other probability bands.on 2016-10-03

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