No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.

  • bobpage estimated 93% on 2016-10-06
  • two2thehead said “How do we judge this prediction? I am assuming that the North Koreans aren’t exactly OSHA compliant in their weapons program.on 2016-10-06
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2017-06-01” and changed their prediction from “No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian” on 2016-10-06
  • bobpage changed the deadline from “on 2017-06-01on 2016-10-06
  • bobpage said “I’ve made it a little more judge-able. If we don’t know (e.g. because North Korea accidentally killed a civilian but managed to cover it up completely), it didn’t happenon 2016-10-06
  • two2thehead estimated 90% and said “Best Korea is extremely good at covering stuff up. And I doubt that asking for Worker’s Comp is good for increasing your lifespan.on 2016-10-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-06
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 95% on 2016-10-06
  • Expipiplusone estimated 99% on 2016-10-07
  • Dapple estimated 90% and said “All probability concentrated in negligent operation of a nuclear weapon, <1% as of being a result of deliberate military action.on 2016-10-07
  • Osuniev estimated 95% on 2016-11-21
  • PlacidPlatypus  judged this prediction right on 2017-06-01.
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Man why was I so underconfident?on 2017-06-01

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