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I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-14; known on 2016-10-17; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-10-16.

  • btrettel estimated 45% on 2016-10-14
  • btrettel said “100 will be accepted out of 222 applicants. I’m predicting my application will be no better or worse than anyone else’s because I’m not sure what others’ applications were like.” on 2016-10-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 41% on 2016-10-15
  • btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-16.
  • btrettel said “Seems I also got the number of applicants wrong, so my base rate was off.” on 2016-11-06