Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results.

Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12

  • jbeshir estimated 70% on 2016-10-29
  • jbeshir changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-12” and changed their prediction from “Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results.” on 2016-10-29
  • jbeshir changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-12on 2016-10-29
  • splorridge estimated 57% on 2016-10-31
  • themusicgod1 estimated 55% on 2016-10-31
  • themusicgod1 said “actually hold on, do you mean without anyone challenging the results or just donald trump? ie if clinton challenges is this true?on 2016-10-31
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Do you think there’s a remotely significant chance of Clinton challenging if she wins?on 2016-11-02
  • PlacidPlatypus said “Not a fan of conditional predictions in general, they get orphaned more than I’d like.on 2016-11-02
  • Dapple estimated 88% on 2016-11-05
  • Dapple said “PP: I understand why you don’t like conditional predictions. I think they serve an important role. If this prediction were unconditional, I find that the distortions regarding “who will win” will overwhelm what is actually trying to be predicted.on 2016-11-05
  • Dapple said “Like, for example, my prediction here. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/179838 I don’t want everyone betting on the extremely likely outcome that someone will get more than 270. I want to challenge people’s beliefs on the behavior of the HoR.on 2016-11-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2016-11-06
  • HonoreDB estimated 40% and said “24 hours seems a bit too short for him to “look into” all the key results.on 2016-11-07
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 36% on 2016-11-07
  • sole21000 estimated 39% on 2016-11-08
  • jbeshir withdrew the prediction on 2016-11-11
  • jbeshir said “Withdrawn due to conditional not being met.on 2016-11-11

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