Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.

• Michael Dickens estimated 75% on 2016-10-29
• two2thehead estimated 60% and said “Probably. MIRI has a lot of smarties working for it. I don’t know much about Open Phil so I’ll be conservative.” on 2016-10-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 24% on 2016-10-30
• Michael Dickens said “New much larger grant to MIRI that’s much more optimistic https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/machine-intelligence-research-institute-general-support-2017” on 2017-11-09
• Michael Dickens   judged this prediction right on 2017-11-09.