US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

• themusicgod1 estimated 6% on 2016-11-07
• themusicgod1 changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-06” on 2016-11-07
• themusicgod1 changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-08” and changed their prediction from “US goes to Defcon 1, 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016” on 2016-11-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2016-11-07
• Dapple estimated 0% on 2016-11-07
• themusicgod1 said “I don’t actually have a contact with the actual number at hand…but given the world didn’t go to nuclear war I’m guessing no.” on 2016-11-09
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.
• PseudonymousUser said “You would probably know about a DEFCON 1 through an unblockable WEA Presidential alert on your phone https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/wireless-emergency-alerts-wea” on 2016-11-16
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON#History” on 2016-11-16