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Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. — Robin Hanson

Created by Pablo on 2013-05-06; known on 2162-01-01

  • Pablo estimated 80% on 2013-05-06
  • Pablo said “Hanson attaches an 80% chance to that claim. See James Miller, Singularity Rising, p. 10” on 2013-05-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2013-05-06
  • Tuxedage estimated 75% on 2013-05-08
  • Ken estimated 80% on 2013-06-17
  • Baeboo estimated 85% on 2018-08-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 68% on 2018-08-15