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Conditional on trying, I will successfully bench 200 pounds for one rep.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-12-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-10.

  • Michael Dickens estimated 95% on 2016-11-07
  • Michael Dickens said “If I do not make an attempt in the next month, I will withdraw the prediction. Relevant context: I have already benched 185×5×3 and 192.5×3×3.” on 2016-11-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-11-08
  • Michael Dickens said “themusicgod1, the fact that I have more information than you and I predicted 95% should give you confidence to make a prediction higher than 54%.” on 2016-11-10
  • Michael Dickens said “And if I already successfully benched 192.5×3×3 then logically I should be able to bench 200×1.” on 2016-11-10
  • Michael Dickens   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-10.
  • themusicgod1 said “the fact that you have more information than me makes me not predict 2%, which is probably close to the baseline” on 2016-11-10