The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million.
- Vipul Naik estimated 75% on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik estimated 75% and said “See http://effective-altruism.com/r/main/ea/xn/givewell_money_moved_in_2015_a_review_of_my/ for more background.” on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik said “For comparison, the amount in 2015 was $44.4 million end-of-year, $25 million mid-year to GiveDirectly, and $1 million to standouts (at end-of-year).” on 2016-11-13
- Michael Dickens estimated 65% and said “reasonable chance that they go over $50M” on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik estimated 60% and said “Downgrading probability because recent published conversations with the Global Fund suggest GiveWell was planning a huge grant to AMF and considering effects on GF funding of malaria.” on 2016-11-24
- Vipul Naik judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-29.
- Vipul Naik said “Total money is $69.1 million based on http://blog.givewell.org/2016/11/28/updated-top-charities-giving-season-2016/” on 2016-11-29
- Vipul Naik judged this prediction right on 2016-11-29.
- Vipul Naik said “Correction: total money moved excluding standouts appears to be $49.6 million.” on 2016-11-29
- Vipul Naik said “Actually, it is 48.6 million” on 2016-11-30
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