Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will.

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-26.

• Vipul Naik estimated 75% on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik said “See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos and its revision history to get an idea of the evolution of video view counts.” on 2016-11-13
• leo_grint estimated 58% on 2016-11-16
• Vipul Naik estimated 64% on 2017-01-25
• Vipul Naik estimated 48% and said “It seems that at the current rate of growth, the two videos will reach 3 billion views at almost the same time. Since Sorry has more likelihood of slowdown (as it’s relatively newer) I am giving it slightly less than even odds.” on 2017-04-22
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-11-26.