The total of grant amounts for grants announced by the Open Philanthropy Project by March 1, 2017, with the grant date listed as being in 2016, excluding GiveWell-recommended grants, will be over $50 million.
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-29.
- Vipul Naik estimated 85% on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik said “See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Philanthropy_Project#Grants_made for a breakdown of grants by focus area and year.” on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik estimated 70% and said “Downgrading probability because of reduced frequency of grants announcement in last week. Unclear if they are just delaying announcements to focus on GiveWell top charities, or have stopped granting for now.” on 2016-11-15
- Vipul Naik estimated 65% and said “Another week with no grant announcements. It might be that they finished up with Open Phil grants during non-Giving Season and will resume in 2017.” on 2016-11-22
- Vipul Naik estimated 50% and said “Since Open Phil has failed to announce any further grants in the last two weeks, I’m downgrading this to even odds.” on 2016-12-06
- Vipul Naik estimated 60% and said “Total grant amount stands at a little over $45.5 million so far, and it seems that grants do get announced with some delay. An extra $4.5 million in year-end grants + grants made earlier but not yet announced seems plausible.” on 2016-12-19
- Vipul Naik estimated 48% and said “Lack of recent grant announcements counts against. But it may be that the people who enter stuff in DB are on holiday.” on 2016-12-28
- Vipul Naik estimated 80% and said “Just a few thousand dollars short of $50 million now!” on 2017-01-11
- Vipul Naik judged this prediction right on 2017-01-29.