Between 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer “More than 50%” to my Google Surveys question “What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?”

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15.

• Vipul Naik estimated 85% on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik said “Track results at https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=a2z2rzmcbad4v2s7ybegla5zum” on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik said “More specific link to question, with more data: https://surveys.google.com/reporting/question?survey=a2z2rzmcbad4v2s7ybegla5zum&question=1&raw=false&transpose=false&tab=0” on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik estimated 65% and said “The data so far, on 156 respondents, gives 8.2% and a 95% CI of 4.9% to 13.3%. It’s still early days but I’m downgrading my probability of staying less than 8%.” on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik estimated 53% and said “Got 207 respondents now, and it’s looking like it will be at the higher end but still more likely less than 8% than more.” on 2016-11-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2016-11-13
• Vipul Naik estimated 45% on 2016-11-14
• Vipul Naik estimated 10% and said “Current 95% CI bottoms out at 9.6%” on 2016-11-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-11-15
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-15.