Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency.

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known 1 day ago

• splorridge estimated 70% on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Hate crime statistics as measured here: https://ucr.fbi.gov/hate-crime/2015/tables-and-data-declarations/1tabledatadecpdf” on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Prediction conditional on similar reporting methodology.” on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Idea for prediction (but not probability) stolen from SSC.” on 2016-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-11-17
• leo_grint estimated 72% on 2016-11-22
• aspire43 said “It seems like the site only has 3 years of data for Trump and nothing for 2020 at this point. Even so, 2019 numbers, taken naively, appear to have barely falsified this prediction.” about 20 hours ago

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction