Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency.

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20

• splorridge estimated 70% on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Hate crime statistics as measured here: https://ucr.fbi.gov/hate-crime/2015/tables-and-data-declarations/1tabledatadecpdf” on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Prediction conditional on similar reporting methodology.” on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Idea for prediction (but not probability) stolen from SSC.” on 2016-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-11-17
• leo_grint estimated 72% on 2016-11-22
• aspire43 said “It seems like the site only has 3 years of data for Trump and nothing for 2020 at this point. Even so, 2019 numbers, taken naively, appear to have barely falsified this prediction.” on 2021-01-20

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