Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

• splorridge estimated 96% on 2016-11-17
• splorridge said “Idea for prediction (but not probability) stolen from SSC.” on 2016-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 81% on 2016-11-17
• leo_grint estimated 94% on 2016-11-18
• two2thehead estimated 95% and said “Five percent hedge.” on 2016-11-18
• trishume estimated 95% on 2016-11-18
• pkfalu92 estimated 95% on 2016-11-19
• bendini estimated 95% on 2016-11-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% and said “Legal in all states or just some?” on 2016-11-25
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% and said “Damnit, meant 95, not 9.” on 2016-11-25
• EloiseRosen estimated 96% on 2016-11-26
• Dapple estimated 89% and said “I’m assuming if at least one state becomes legally capable of doing so (Obergefell v Hodges verdict overridden), and then does so, this prediction will close as wrong. I’m highly confident that the SCOTUS is the ONLY obstacle albeit a strong one.” on 2016-11-28
• Temeraire estimated 88% on 2016-11-30
• splorridge said “Dapple’s assumption is correct. Sorry for not making the wording clearer.” on 2016-11-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2016-12-01
• penten estimated 95% on 2016-12-01
• RainbowSpacedancer estimated 92% on 2016-12-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 91% on 2017-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2020-06-12
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2021-01-22.