There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years

Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.

• Osuniev estimated 2% on 2016-11-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-11-21
• RainbowSpacedancer estimated 5% on 2016-12-04
• pkfalu92 estimated 6% on 2016-12-04
• playablecharacter said “use? test?” on 2017-01-02
• platypus42 estimated 0% on 2020-11-17
• platypus42   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-26.