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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event.

Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.

  • kuudes estimated 1% on 2016-11-27
  • kuudes said “related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180406” on 2016-11-27
  • kuudes said “I suppose I would predict 0% but I am concerned that I would be mistaken somehow.” on 2016-11-27
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “I share the same thoughts as kuudes. Less than one percent.” on 2016-11-27
  • two2thehead said “The only criticism I’d make is in differentiating civil war per se and terrorism done in the name of $POLITICALGOAL of the insurrectionists. Think ISIS/ISIL/Daesh claiming responsibility for the 2015 Nov Paris attacks.” on 2016-11-27
  • two2thehead said “I suppose “kill >= 100 armed persons” could be a differentiator.” on 2016-11-27
  • themusicgod1 estimated 19% on 2016-11-28
  • Temeraire estimated 0% on 2016-11-30
  • RainbowSpacedancer estimated 3% on 2016-12-02
  • tedks estimated 1% and said “This is not how civil war in the US would look.” on 2016-12-09
  • playablecharacter estimated 1% on 2017-01-02
  • kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-04-01.